Following the executed parameter rounds, we are sharing a comprehensive review of the market response against the projections published in this proposal.
Since execution began, the Risk Stewards have moved Slope1 on the in-scope reserves by a cumulative 30 bps, raised the temporary uOptimal to 94% on the Ethereum Core reserves, and carried the USDe base to 4.00% in four steps, with the USDe Slope1 reduction under way. The chart below shows daily supply and borrows on the three Ethereum Core reserves with each change marked.
What has followed the projection
Borrow demand held through the increases. Ethereum Core USDT borrows grew $73M and USDC borrows grew $81M between August 27 and September 6, while borrow rates moved to 4.24% and 4.27%, with both reserves below their optimal utilization. The projection expected the books to keep growing through the sequence, and they have.
USDC is absorbing migrated demand ahead of the projection: its book grew $81M against the $39M we anticipated at this stage.
The USDe realignment is proceeding as projected. Ethereum Core USDe borrows declined from $444M at the first parameter change to $274M on September 6, a 38% reduction, with a visible step at each base increase.
Retention has exceeded the projection. The model carried $35.5M of cumulative USDT debt migration to Spark by this stage of the sequence; SparkLend’s Ethereum USDT borrows instead declined slightly over the window. No measurable outflow to comparable venues has occurred, and Aave’s borrow cost remains competitive against the on-chain alternatives through the executed steps.
What lags the projection
The supply side has not responded yet. The projection assumed a Spark Savings inflow arriving as the reserves reached optimal utilization; Ethereum Core USDT deposits are broadly flat since execution began, and utilization has risen to 92.7%. The temporary uOptimal increase to 94% is providing the intended headroom while the supply response develops, and the remaining Slope1 step raises the supplier return further.
Of the USDe debt released since the first parameter change, roughly has migrated as demand on the other stablecoins. Wallets reducing their USDe debt cut $185M over the window; $94M of it reappeared as USDT and USDC debt on the same wallets, and the remaining $92M was repaid. Across the two receiving reserves, $356M of new borrowing arrived against $207M of repayments, with addresses new to these reserves being the largest source of the new demand. The migration path remains open, and we expect to continue.
| Source of new USDT and USDC borrowing | Wallets | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Wallets migrating debt from USDe | 37 | $108.1M |
| Existing borrowers increasing debt | 1,434 | $53.2M |
| Borrowers new to the two reserves | 614 | $194.7M |
| New borrowing, total | 2,085 | $356.0M |
| Repayments and closures | 865 | −$207.4M |
| Interest accrued over the window | $5.2M | |
| Book growth since the first change | $153.8M |
Next steps
The sequence continues, with the market assessed between steps as before. The next round of adjustments:
Stablecoin Slope 1 Adjustment
| Chain | Market | Reserve | Parameter | Current Value | Recommended Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum | Core | USDC | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| Ethereum | Core | USDT | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| Plasma | - | USDT0 | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| Base | - | USDC | Slope 1 | 4.60% | 4.70% |
| Arbitrum | - | USDT | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| Avalanche | - | USDC | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| Avalanche | - | USDt | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| Monad | - | USDC | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| Monad | - | USDT0 | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| MegaETH | - | USDm | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| BNB Chain | - | USDC | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| BNB Chain | - | USDT | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| Gnosis | - | USDC.e | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| Optimism | - | USDT | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| Linea | - | USDC | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| Linea | - | USDT | Slope 1 | 4.30% | 4.40% |
USDe Base Alignment
| Chain | Market | Reserve | Parameter | Current Value | Recommended Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | - | USDe | Base | 4.00% | 5.00% |
| Ethereum | Core | USDe | Base | 4.00% | 5.00% |
| Mantle | - | USDe | Base | 4.00% | 5.00% |
| Monad | - | USDe | Base | 4.00% | 5.00% |
| Plasma | - | USDe | Base | 4.00% | 5.00% |
USDe Slope 1 Alignment
| Chain | Market | Reserve | Parameter | Current Value | Recommended Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | - | USDe | Slope 1 | 3.00% | 2.00% |
| Ethereum | Core | USDe | Slope 1 | 3.00% | 2.00% |
| Mantle | - | USDe | Slope 1 | 4.00% | 3.00% |
| Monad | - | USDe | Slope 1 | 4.00% | 3.00% |
| Plasma | - | USDe | Slope 1 | 4.00% | 3.00% |
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