Thanks for the proposal @GordonLiao, here I constructed USDC borrower snapshot as of 2026-04-23 07:00:00 UTC with a forward-looking deterministic analysis over the most vulnerable USDC positions.
TL;DR
- USDC remains highly utilized (98.06%), but is no longer fully pinned; available liquidity is about $34,938,518
- Observed variable borrow APR is 11.68% at snapshot time (2026-04-23 07:00:00 UTC).
- Under proposal scenarios at current utilization, modeled 30-day material debt-at-risk is concentrated around $61,288,618.
- Under pinned-utilization stress (99.87%), target-curve stress introduces one material <=7d account and raises 30-day material debt-at-risk to $70,142,038.
Methodology
- User set: addresses with positive net USDC debt.
- Risk state: live
getUserAccountDatafor HF, debt, collateral. - Debt mix modeling: reconstructed USDC share applied to user-level debt growth; non-USDC debt accrues at current debt-weighted baseline APR.
- Assumptions: static prices, no top-ups/repay/migrations, deterministic accrual.
Current State Snapshot
- Supply: $1,803,583,630
- Borrow: $1,768,645,111
- Available liquidity: $34,938,518
- Utilization (
borrow/supply): 98.06% - Observed USDC variable borrow APR: 11.68%
- Observed USDC supply APR: 10.32%
- Population covered: 9,036 users
- Material users (
debt >= $100k): 1,408
Material HF Distribution
Cumulative Material Debt-at-Risk (0-90 days)
This curve maps the exact continuous exponential decay of Health Factors across time horizons, providing a continuous view of when capital crosses the liquidation threshold.
Scenario-Based Bar Graph
Current observed APR
- 7-Day Risk: 0 Users / $0.00M Vol
- 30-Day Risk: 1 Users / $0.90M Vol
Interim @ current util
- 7-Day Risk: 0 Users / $0.00M Vol
- 30-Day Risk: 3 Users / $61.29M Vol
Target @ current util
- 7-Day Risk: 0 Users / $0.00M Vol
- 30-Day Risk: 3 Users / $61.29M Vol
Interim @ 99.87% util
- 7-Day Risk: 0 Users / $0.00M Vol
- 30-Day Risk: 3 Users / $61.29M Vol
Target @ 99.87% util
- 7-Day Risk: 1 Users / $0.90M Vol
- 30-Day Risk: 5 Users / $70.14M Vol
Scenario Table (Material Users)
| Scenario | 7d users | 7d debt-at-risk | 30d users | 30d debt-at-risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current observed APR | 0 | $0 | 1 | $903,834 |
| Interim @ current util | 0 | $0 | 3 | $61,288,618 |
| Target @ current util | 0 | $0 | 3 | $61,288,618 |
| Interim @ 99.87% util | 0 | $0 | 3 | $61,288,618 |
| Target @ 99.87% util | 1 | $903,834 | 5 | $70,142,038 |
Largest Address Deep-Dive: 0x0591926d5d3b9cc48ae6efb8db68025ddc3adfa5
This address is the largest debt concentration in the sensitivity set and materially drives scenario-level debt-at-risk outcomes.
- Total debt: $60,157,937
- Reconstructed USDC debt: $50,804,404 (84.45% of total debt)
- Non-USDC debt (modeled baseline accrual): $9,353,533
- Collateral: $66,203,217
- Current HF: 1.0125
- Debt headroom to HF=1 under static prices: $749,022 (1.25% debt growth buffer)
| Scenario | Days to liquidation | HF @ 7d | HF @ 30d | USDC carry/day | USDC carry/30d | Share of scenario 30d material debt-at-risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current observed APR | 43.2 | 1.0104 | 1.0038 | $15,378 | $463,382 | 0.0% |
| Interim @ current util | 16.1 | 1.0070 | 0.9894 | $44,385 | $1,348,555 | 98.2% |
| Target @ current util | 13.4 | 1.0059 | 0.9848 | $53,694 | $1,635,737 | 98.2% |
| Interim @ 99.87% util | 14.4 | 1.0064 | 0.9866 | $49,907 | $1,518,719 | 98.2% |
| Target @ 99.87% util | 12.2 | 1.0053 | 0.9820 | $59,288 | $1,809,076 | 85.8% |
At current-utilization interim/target scenarios, this single address contributes ~98% of 30-day material debt-at-risk, highlighting strong single-name concentration.
Top 30 Most Vulnerable Material Accounts
The following 30 addresses hold material debt ($>$10k) and are the absolute closest to the HF < 1.0 boundary. They will be the first to default under the accelerated interest rate.
| Rank | Address | Total Debt (USD) | USDC Debt (USD) | Initial HF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xb0f76a4c60c6c993ac30bdda24c5f7f98a03249c |
$903,834.10 | $845,027.68 | 1.0075 |
| 2 | 0x0591926d5d3b9cc48ae6efb8db68025ddc3adfa5 |
$60,157,937.49 | $50,804,404.39 | 1.0125 |
| 3 | 0x211c2f0b9b5a521c7c14fe067baa89fbab8d6a6e |
$11,536.28 | $11,007.00 | 1.0177 |
| 4 | 0x67672db04f5e6b5fcbccc9564a36c2b3a85fc9b0 |
$4,135,760.38 | $168,850.00 | 1.0202 |
| 5 | 0x512f98be678c85f1b66f643cca4d557a36a9ad5c |
$36,991.72 | $31,317.63 | 1.0218 |
| 6 | 0x9e283ba6d80faaf1bee7270e21eee5c375266611 |
$226,846.59 | $213,709.45 | 1.0241 |
| 7 | 0x355b5f013a1ede94607f7a4ce45c0132f053507c |
$21,740,207.58 | $1,915,000.00 | 1.0259 |
| 8 | 0x6f10b22517ab7a3f5aa722e62a6917a3a7c2e2b8 |
$1,614,480.45 | $1,152,000.00 | 1.0280 |
| 9 | 0xb1bcfa1004019f54ffd1e6f0bfe9425f82e71fb2 |
$20,593.14 | $19,118.18 | 1.0292 |
| 10 | 0xa57e4d659e6fb88317a68ea19d18cb8784908157 |
$31,981.53 | $385.00 | 1.0300 |
| 11 | 0xf2035c797bc9ef9f3396e747e8b73907d420770c |
$209,231.17 | $174,456.22 | 1.0311 |
| 12 | 0x8a93aae912e40dad3b64120c74dd27269acc1df7 |
$805,889.54 | $766,901.97 | 1.0311 |
| 13 | 0x2304eb247ae2dcf91ba372b458fc7e4ccc55ee42 |
$8,047,530.00 | $7,999,659.91 | 1.0325 |
| 14 | 0x848edbf93e6c56a2580023b820591622ad7f80a2 |
$110,870.48 | $26,899.99 | 1.0326 |
| 15 | 0x287f4637b332457934e700f52ce772c2ec2881f6 |
$92,750.85 | $89,761.74 | 1.0354 |
| 16 | 0x0c245411babbef9d19b4929be810a7c8c1937a6f |
$15,997.42 | $15,594.14 | 1.0356 |
| 17 | 0x3313495b01228b95ae6b0103ce9e4161a32202bf |
$662,142.70 | $63,964.04 | 1.0356 |
| 18 | 0x618ca7d5aef24dac6cb70553b5dbf5f40a315cac |
$10,983.15 | $10,447.23 | 1.0359 |
| 19 | 0x17b9f4fb6860d3bd05d6393a1fb29e9782a593d9 |
$20,062.05 | $19,327.47 | 1.0372 |
| 20 | 0x6d16527bfa9514e246f71137c19a304b64f1e46a |
$17,509.42 | $16,717.93 | 1.0387 |
| 21 | 0x6c87a26bec3cf0e0156eba691cbfd1b4c5ec12cc |
$43,992.54 | $40,000.00 | 1.0394 |
| 22 | 0xa8cf19d23d9331754bda7656cc0f0bd422df9d83 |
$11,159.13 | $10,959.29 | 1.0395 |
| 23 | 0x44d322a634ca8f4ecaae5d0bea3e49496f09b2d5 |
$83,932.80 | $83,051.00 | 1.0401 |
| 24 | 0xaddaa4ab654434c7e0540245aa98ed4589361e02 |
$28,497.66 | $26,100.00 | 1.0405 |
| 25 | 0x5a988f1ea42c216c73a0ea0f8ad886616afaabaf |
$11,867.96 | $3,177.40 | 1.0422 |
| 26 | 0xf183b397d161402c46d4d32b08819c3cfd322975 |
$82,275.55 | $76,439.81 | 1.0425 |
| 27 | 0x30963fb71ec4a5d88fece5c540d156788b00b10d |
$50,266.41 | $49,280.22 | 1.0427 |
| 28 | 0x5700bfd5bd9f5b41158094a50b43ae5b77cdb5ac |
$22,323.12 | $19,940.11 | 1.0436 |
| 29 | 0xee82e96a09ffe53c3b49ec6a3c424ff3abd58813 |
$64,714.66 | $61,994.36 | 1.0437 |
| 30 | 0x407a4e523a4e7eab58eb61fb66d7b0555f6dfb08 |
$15,267.00 | $15,245.16 | 1.0448 |
Interpretation
- Count-based risk is dominated by dust accounts; debt-weighted risk remains concentrated in a small set of loop-heavy wallets.
- At the current (not fully pinned) utilization, no material account is in <=7d liquidation under interim/target-at-current-util scenarios.
- Under pinned stress, the target curve notably tightens clocks for the most levered material accounts.
Caveats
- This is sensitivity analysis, not a forecast of realized liquidations.
- It excludes collateral price shocks and behavioral responses.
- A separate post will propose a balanced parameter set.