[ARFC] Onboard and Enable sUSDe liquid E-Mode on Aave v3 Mainnet and Lido Instance

[ARFC] Onboard and enable sUSDe liquid E- mode on main Instance Mainnet and Lido Instance

Author: ACI ( Aave Chan Initiative)

Date: 2024-11-06


ARFC updated 2024-11-08 with latest Risk Parameters provided by Risk Service Providers.

Summary

This proposal aims to enable sUSDe liquid E-Mode on Aave v3 Mainnet for the Main and Lido instances. By implementing this change, we seek to enhance capital efficiency for borrowers using sUSDe as collateral, particularly for borrowing other stablecoins. This is a Direct to AIP proposal.

Motivation

The motivation behind this proposal stems from several key factors:

  • High Utilization: sUSDe has demonstrated significant usage as collateral for borrowing stablecoins on the platform.
  • Capital Efficiency: Enabling liquid E-Mode for sUSDe will allow borrowers to substantially improve their capital efficiency when using this asset as collateral.
  • Controlled Growth: Liquid E-Mode provides a mechanism for more precise control over the growth and borrow demand in relation to the overall stablecoin liquidity within Aave v3 on Mainnet.
  • Enhanced Borrowing Capacity: This change will enable users to borrow larger amounts of other stablecoins against their sUSDe collateral, potentially increasing platform utilization and revenue.

By implementing this proposal, we aim to optimize the use of sUSDe within the Aave ecosystem, attracting more liquidity for stablecoins.

Specification

This proposal will add sUSDe liquid E-Mode against USDC, sUSDS, and GHO.
Nevertheless it may be subject to change based on Risk Service Providers feedback. If that’s the case the ARFC will be updated accordingly.

ARFC updated 2024-11-08 with feedback provided by Risk Service Providers.

sUSDe Market Configuration (Lido Instance)

Parameter Value
Isolation Mode false
Borrowable DISABLED
Collateral Enabled true
Supply Cap (sUSDe) 20,000,000
Borrow Cap (sUSDe) 1000
Debt Ceiling USD 0
LTV 0.05 %
LT 0.1 %
Liquidation Bonus 7.5 %
Liquidation Protocol Fee 10 %
Reserve Factor 10 %
Base Variable Borrow Rate 0.05 %
Variable Slope 1 0.1 %
Variable Slope 2 3 %
Uoptimal 1 %
Flashloanable ENABLED
Siloed Borrowing DISABLED
Borrowable in Isolation DISABLED

sUSDe Liquid E-mode Configuration

Parameter Value Value Value
Asset sUSDe USDS USDC
Collateral Yes No No
Borrowable No Yes Yes
Max LTV 90% - -
Liquidation Threshold 92% - -
Liquidation Bonus 3.0% - -

Useful links

BGD. Aave v3.2: Liquid Emodes

ARFC Snapshot

Github

AIP

Disclaimer

This proposal is directly powered by ACI (Aave Chan Initiative). ACI did not received compensation for creation of this proposal.

Next Steps

  1. If consensus is reached on this ARFC, publish an AIP vote for final confirmation and enforcement of the proposal

Copyright

Copyright and related rights waived via CC0.

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Overview

Chaos Labs supports the proposal to enable sUSDe liquid E-Mode, including sUSDe, USDC, sUSDS, and GHO, as well as the listing of sUSDe in the Aave’s v3 Ethereum Lido Instance. However, we recommend adjustments to the LT, LTV, and Liquidation Bonus parameters to reduce the liquidation risk posed by the new E-Mode to Aave’s protocol.

Motivation

Understanding the Risk with sUSDe Current Oracle Setup

Given the structure of the oracle chosen for sUSDe, the asset differs from others, like LSTs, in terms of how price deviations affect liquidation risk. In LSTs, deviations in market price do not typically trigger liquidations thanks to the debt being denominated in the same asset as the oracle market price. For example, in the case of wstETH, the oracle reflects the ratio of wstETH/stETH multiplied by WETH/USD. Given the predominant WETH debt, the only variance in the oracle setup that could lead to liquidation is the exchange rate of wstETH/stETH decreasing. This setup means that market price deviations don’t impact the collateral’s valuation relative to the debt, avoiding unnecessary liquidations.

In contrast, sUSDe’s oracle is structured as sUSDe/USDe multiplied by USDe/USDC. When the market price of USDe declines, it directly impacts the sUSDe oracle price, increasing the likelihood of liquidations. Additionally, sUSDe has a 7-day unlock period, during which deviations between its sUSDe/USDe market price and sUSDe/USDe exchange rate can occur. As USDe deviates from USDC and sUSDe deviates from USDe, cascading liquidations may occur and thus be triggered when the asset has already moved beyond profitable liquidation levels.

Liquidity Concerns with sUSDe Market Oracle

Furthermore, a sUSDe/USDC market oracle is not adopted because while it would lead to faster liquidations, avoiding the risk of bad debt from the previously explained oracle setup, sUSDe lacks sufficient market liquidity relative to its total supply to ensure that liquidations do not lead to liquidation cascades and eventually to the creation of bad debt. Although the current liquidity of sUSDe has grown significantly over the last month, the buy liquidity is highly volatile, leading to a sustained price impact. Over the last 4 months, the average buy liquidity has been less than $10M sDAI in the most liquid DEX pool.

Comparison with Other Protocols

Some competitors mitigate these risks by hardcoding the USDe/USD component of the sUSDe oracle to $1. While this process commonly poses significant risks, in those instances, the protocol is effectively able to internalize the liquidation process. This approach allows them to reduce the risk of bad debt and allows for higher LT and LTV ratios. However, Aave’s open-market liquidation mechanism requires more conservative parameters to ensure the protocol’s safety and solvency.

E-Mode LT/LTV

Given the previously discussed risks, we recommend setting the LB according to the maximum discount observed in recent months for sUSDe relative to its exchange rate. This discount reached 2.47% on August 5 during the broader market decline. Using this, we recommend a 3% liquidation bonus to ensure liquidations are processed even in the event of a sUSDe discount.

With this LB, bad debt would begin accruing at a theoretical LTV of 0.97. We recommend providing a buffer set to 1.5 times the maximum discount observed, leading to an LT recommendation of 92% and LTV of 90%.

Listing sUSDe in Lido Instance

Given the absence of an sUSDe listing in the Lido instance, we propose the following initial parameters.

LTV, Liquidation Threshold, and Liquidation Bonus

As the primary purpose of sUSDe is to function as collateral through E-Mode, we recommend setting highly limiting values for its LTV and LT outside of the E-Mode to minimize unintended usage. To avoid freezing the asset, we propose an LT of 0.1% and an LTV of 0.05%, ensuring minimal borrowing capability without impacting the asset’s ability to be used as collateral.

Interest Rate Curve

Since sUSDe is recommended as a non-borrowable asset, there is no need for an interest rate curve or UOptimal setting.

Supply and Borrow Cap

Following Chaos Labs’ methodology for initial supply caps, we typically set the supply cap at 2x the liquidity available under the Liquidation Penalty’s price impact. However, given the volatility of sUSDe’s available buy liquidity, we recommend basing the cap on the average buy liquidity over the past three months. Using this adjusted metric, we propose an initial supply cap of 20,000,000 sUSDe. Since the asset is non-borrowable, a borrow cap is unnecessary.

Recommendation

Below are the initial listing parameters Chaos Labs recommends for sUSDe in Aave’s V3 Ethereum Lido instance, along with an associated sUSDe Liquid E-Mode configuration in both the Ethereum Lido and Main instances.

Specification

sUSDe Market Configuration (Lido Instance)

Parameter Value
Network Ethereum Lido
Isolation Mode No
Borrowable No
Collateral Enabled Yes
Supply Cap 20,000,000
Borrow Cap -
Debt Ceiling -
LTV 0.05%
LT 0.10%
Liquidation Bonus 7.50%
Liquidation Protocol Fee 10.00%
Variable Base -
Variable Slope1 -
Variable Slope2 -
Uoptimal -
Reserve Factor -
Stable Borrowing Disabled
Flashloanable Yes
Siloed Borrowing No
Borrowable in Isolation No

sUSDe Liquid E-mode Configuration

Parameter Value Value Value
Asset sUSDe USDS USDC
Collateral Yes No No
Borrowable No Yes Yes
Max LTV 90% - -
Liquidation Threshold 92% - -
Liquidation Bonus 3.0% - -
2 Likes

Summary

LlamaRisk supports establishing a liquid E-Mode for sUSDe on both Mainnet and Lido instances. The prerequisite onboarding of sUSDe to the Lido instance represents a measured and rational decision. As referenced in the GHO Lido onboarding proposal, sUSDe would serve dual purposes:

  1. Provide a new collateral type for GHO
  2. Enable enhanced stablecoin borrowing utility on the instance

The proposed sUSDe/stablecoins liquid E-Mode would further optimize these use cases.

While we support the sUSDe onboarding parameters proposed by @ChaosLabs and @ACI for the Lido instance, historical data reveals that sUSDe’s secondary market price experienced a maximum temporary discount of 3.8%. Since this exceeds the proposed 3% liquidation bonus, we recommend increasing the liquid E-Mode liquidation bonus to 4%.

Detailed analysis

Current Status

During the past months, until the recent reversal of USDe, TVL gradually decreased and reached a low of $2.45B. As the market conditions started improving and the USDe yield increased again, the USDe supply retracted and currently stands at $2.9B.

sUSDe Supply

The yield attractiveness has also resulted in a higher ratio of USDe supply staked into sUSDe, which currently stands at a record of 65%. Consequently, the absolute supply of sUSDe has also increased to 1.7B sUSDe.


Source: LlamaRisk Ethena’s Risk Dashboard, 9th November, 2024

Protocol Health

The overall protocol stability and over-collateralization continue to improve as adequate levels of Reserve Fund are maintained and the notional value of collateral increases.


Source: LlamaRisk Ethena’s Risk Dashboard, 9th November, 2024

sUSDe Liquidity

The largest sUSDe liquidity pools combine $48.3M of liquidity with a total amount of 15.9M sUSDe on Curve, Balancer V2, and Uniswap V3. The largest pool pairs sUSDe with sDAI, while smaller pools combine sUSDe with stablecoins: USDC, USDT, and crvUSD.


Source:DefiLlama, 9th November, 2024

Part of the sUSDe liquidity provision is rewarded with Ethena Rewards Campaign points as part of the season 3 airdrop farming. Nonetheless, it can be deemed that such incentives have become ineffective as the liquidity-to-supply ratio for sUSDe remains at ~2.3%.

Historical Stability

On Aave’s Mainnet market, sUSDe’s price oracle combines the internal sUSDe/USDe exchange rate with Chainlink’s USDe/USD price feed. In addition, the CAPO mechanism is used to calculate the internal exchange rate. This means that the USDe price in secondary markets mainly influences the Oracle price. In the event of liquidation, liquidators would acquire sUSDe at a discount equal to the liquidation penalty, currently set at 8.5% on Aave Mainnet. The liquidation penalty should exceed the highest observed discount for sUSDe to ensure profitable liquidations.

sUSDe De-peg Risk

Historically, low sUSDe liquidity has made it susceptible to secondary market de-pegs. An instance of a 3.8% discount was observed in April 2024. One more temporary de-peg happened on 5th August 2024, when the discount reached 1.8%. The liquidation penalty should, therefore, be 4% to ensure the profitability of liquidations. This could be moderated as the sUSDe liquidity situation improves.


Source: Dune Analytics, 9th November, 2024

Liquidation Risk

As discussed above, the sUSDe price on Aave is largely dependent on the USDe secondary market price provided by a dedicated Chainlink’s USDe/USD feed. It can be observed that since its onboarding on Aave, the USDe discount never exceeded 20 bps (-0.2%). Furthermore, extended pricing data shows that the maximal historical market price discount was 36 bps (-0.36%).


Source: Chainlink USDe/USD data feed, 9th November, 2024

sUSDe is onboarded as an isolated asset, allowing only stablecoins to be borrowed using sUSDe as collateral. Given the historical stability of the USDe peg, no liquidations of sUSDe-backed loans have occurred. Liquidation risk is minimized for 20% of sUSDe-backed loans on the Mainnet market, where USDe is borrowed against sUSDe itself. As a result, the lower LTV-to-LT buffer imposed by the Liquid E-Mode is adequate to cover any temporary fluctuations in the secondary market.

Estimated Increase in Leverage

The onboarding of sUSDe expects to enable leveraged yield looping with stablecoins on the Lido market. On the Mainnet market, the leveraged yield looping is already possible but subject to a lower total leverage due to a lower LTV threshold.

The maximum possible leverage for sUSDe on Mainnet, assuming an infinite number of loops, is currently:

image

Where current max. Given the proposed liquid E-Mode’s max, the LTV of sUSDe is 72%. With an LTV of 90%, the highest possible leverage would be 10x. Nonetheless, as data on Mainnet indicates, only some users aim to borrow at maximal leverage. It is expected that sUSDe will be borrowed at a lower liquidation risk, especially since e-Mode would not offer USDe as a borrowable asset.


Source: LlamaRisk

Disclaimer

In the interest of transparency, LlamaRisk is a compensated member of Ethena’s Risk Committee and provides ongoing risk advisory services to their protocol.

This review was independently prepared by LlamaRisk, a community-led non-profit decentralized organization funded partly by the Aave DAO. LlamaRisk did not receive any compensation from the protocol(s) or their affiliated entities for this work.

The information should not be construed as legal, financial, tax, or professional advice.

2 Likes

We appreciate @LlamaRisk’s detailed analysis and support for establishing a liquid E-Mode for sUSDe on both Mainnet and Lido instances. However, increasing the liquidation bonus from 3% to 4% and consequently reducing the LT and LTV would adversely impact the platform’s competitiveness. Borrowing limits significantly lower than competing lending platforms could deter users seeking capital efficiency, hence undermining the primary goal of the proposal of enhancing sUSDe’s utility within the Aave ecosystem.

Regarding the historical price deviations of sUSDe, it’s important to note that the temporary discount of 3.8% observed in April 2024 occurred during the early stages of the Ethena protocol, pre-initialization of a Chainlink oracle for sUSDe. In fact, the circulating supply of sUSDe since April 2024 has grown by over 500%. It’s also noteworthy that due to a speculative incentive structure favoring pure USDe holders over sUSDe, aimed at bootstrapping the reserve fund, only 14% of USDe was staked in sUSDe at the time. The limited 14% staking in sUSDe created a smaller asset base and pronounced volatility, compounded by duration risk with respect to the implied opportunity cost of points, whereas today’s 66% staking rate and associated incentive structure provide a far more stable foundation.

Moreover, liquidations are triggered by deviations in the USDe market price, not the sUSDe market price. Given that a Chainlink Oracle used to track the USDe/USD rate is significantly more stable than the USDe market rate, the likelihood of a deviation event posing significant risk is further decreased, especially given the 5 percentage point LTV buffer past the LT before bad debt starts to accrue.

In conclusion, maintaining the LB at 3% offers a sufficient buffer to ensure profitable liquidations without imposing unnecessary penalties on borrowers. Increasing the LB to 4% would penalize users and reduce the platform’s attractiveness, potentially limiting utility.

We recommend proceeding with the originally proposed parameters: a 3% liquidation bonus, a 92% liquidation threshold, and a 90% loan-to-value ratio.

We thank all service providers who helped refine the proposed sUSDe liquid e-Mode setup. The V3.2 upgrades introduce significant changes that require a thorough review.

Two blockers must be resolved before ARFC voting:

  • Agreement on the liquidation bonus rate
  • Technical limitations regarding isolation mode borrowing for GHO and USDS

LlamaRisk is working with Aave’s Service Providers to address these issues.

LT-to-LTV buffer (resolved)

We agree with @ChaosLabs, which has noted:

As pointed out in our initial note:

To ensure optimal user experience, the proposed liquid e-Mode’s LTV-to-LT buffer must safely cover all minor and temporary USDe de-pegs without triggering liquidations for borrowers using sUSDe as collateral. The proposed parameters are:

  • Maximum LTV: 90%
  • Liquidation Threshold (LT): 92%
  • Resulting buffer: 2%

USDe’s secondary market price can be discounted up to 2% before triggering liquidations (assuming the sUSDe internal exchange rate remains fixed). As noted in our initial analysis:

It can be observed that since its onboarding on Aave, the USDe discount never exceeded 20 bps (-0.2%). Furthermore, extended pricing data shows that the maximal historical market price discount was 36 bps (-0.36%).

USDe’s discount has never reached levels that would trigger e-Mode liquidations. Given USDe’s adequate liquidity, we support the proposed LT-to-LTV buffer.

Liquidation Penalty

The problem related to the liquidation bonus emerges when a position becomes liquidable: liquidators must navigate a potential gap between the liquidation bonus and sUSDe’s market price. Here’s how a liquidation would work in the liquid e-Mode:

  1. Repay the stablecoin debt
  2. Receive sUSDe collateral with a liquidation bonus
  3. Sell sUSDe collateral for USD-denominated stablecoin to realize profit

If liquidation occurs due to a >2% USDe secondary market discount, Aave prices the sUSDe collateral at this discounted rate. The liquidator receives this sUSDe with an additional liquidation bonus relative to USDe. The key risk is if sUSDe’s secondary market price de-pegs from USDe by more than the liquidation bonus. In such cases, liquidators would delay or avoid executing liquidations since they cannot guarantee a profit, exposing Aave to increasing bad debt risk.

Consider this scenario:

  1. USDe market price drops to $0.97 (-3% from peg)

    • Positions at max LTV (90%) now exceed 92% LT
    • Their LTV becomes ~92.7%
    • This triggers liquidation eligibility
  2. Liquidator’s expected process:

    • Repays stablecoin debt
    • Receives sUSDe with a 3% liquidation bonus vs USDe
    • Must immediately sell sUSDe for stablecoins to lock profit
  3. Problem arises when:

    • sUSDe trades at a 4% discount to USDe in the secondary market
    • Liquidator’s profit calculation: 3% (bonus) - 4% (market discount) = -1%

Result: Risk-free liquidation becomes unprofitable, deterring liquidators and increasing chances of the protocol accruing bad debt.

Based on the observed historical maximum sUSDe de-peg, we propose increasing the liquidation bonus to 4%. While this de-peg occurred during Ethena’s protocol early days with lower sUSDe staking rates, the sUSDe liquidity-to-supply ratio remains comparable to those levels:


Source: Dune Analytics, 14th November, 2024

Volatile changes in perpetual funding rate yields may drive sUSDe holders to sell directly in the secondary market rather than wait for the 7-day unstaking period, potentially creating selling pressure similar to April 2024. Even temporary price discounts require sufficient liquidation incentives to ensure effective liquidations.

Assets Non-Borrowable in Isolation

Our inquiry with @bgdlabs revealed that the proposed liquid e-Mode is not technically feasible on the Main instance under current parameters. Since sUSDe is listed under isolation mode, only certain stablecoins can be borrowed against it as collateral. Stablecoins with borrowable in isolation set to False cannot be borrowed using any isolated asset as collateral. Two stablecoins in the proposed liquid e-Mode - GHO and USDS - currently have this restriction.

Liquid e-Mode does not override this borrowability parameter, preventing GHO and USDS from being borrowed against sUSDe collateral. We’ve identified several approaches to resolve this:

  1. Set GHO and USDS to be borrowable in isolation. The legacy version of USDS (DAI) was set to be borrowable in isolation, and therefore, the same could be done for USDS without high-risk implications. However, setting GHO to be borrowable in isolation would enable all isolated assets to collateralize GHO. This would have additional risk consequences that would need further evaluation.
  2. Offboard sUSDe from isolation, lower LTV, and LT to replicate the conditions from the Lido market. However, it would take significant time to make these changes as they would need to be performed gradually.
  3. Abstain from the proposed liquid e-Mode on the Main instance or rework it only to include assets that are borrowable in isolation.

Notably, the described problem does not apply to the proposed liquid e-Mode on the Lido market instance, where all proposed stablecoins will be borrowable as sUSDe would not be onboarded in isolation mode.

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We thank @LlamaRisk and all other service providers for their valuable contribution and insights shared regarding the proposal. These contributions are instrumental in refining our approach to ensure both the safety and competitiveness of the Aave protocol.

Assets Non-Borrowable in Isolation

Regarding the concern raised by @LlamaRisk about assets non-borrowable in isolation, we note that GHO is not included in the original proposal’s specification, especially since the focus of the proposal also involves the Lido instance where GHO is not yet listed. Therefore, addressing GHO at this stage may be unnecessary. We support the first approach of setting USDS to be borrowable in isolation, as it is comparable to DAI. In the extensive analysis done during USDS’s listing, both Chaos Labs and Llamarisk established that USDS could be atomically migrated back and forth to DAI at a 1:1 ratio, inheriting all of DAI’s properties. For this reason, including USDS in the limited asset list should not pose significant risk implications. Furthermore, since our recommendation for sUSDe’s initial listing in the Lido instance does not involve using isolation mode, we propose adding GHO to the Lido E-Mode once it is listed on the instance.

LT/LTV Buffer Considerations

Concerning the LTV and LT buffers, it is important to note that the LTV to LT buffer may not significantly impact the protocol’s safety in this context. The buffer between the LTV and LT ratios is less critical as users can utilize flash loans to exceed the LTV limit when opening positions, effectively repaying the flash loan to bring their position back within the acceptable LT constraint. This means that the LTV to LT buffer does not effectively limit users from taking on higher leverage and, therefore, does not significantly contribute to mitigating risk.

Therefore, the critical LTV buffer to consider is between the LT and 1/(1 + Liquidation Bonus), as this margin protects the protocol from accruing bad debt after a liquidation is executed. This buffer ensures that during the liquidation process, after removing the value paid to the liquidator, the remaining assets are sufficient to cover the outstanding debt without resulting in a loss for the protocol. In this case, a larger buffer guarantees additional protection during volatile market environments.

Liquidity Dynamics and Incentive Structures

In evaluating the appropriate LB, it’s essential to consider the historical context of Ethena’s incentive mechanisms. When significant sUSDe price deviations occurred in April, Ethena was incentivizing users to hold USDe rather than staking it as sUSDe. This incentive distribution aligned with their strategy aimed to keep the staking percentage low to further bolster the insurance fund, which has doubled in size since then. Consequently, users were less inclined to stake their USDe into sUSDe, leading to a significantly smaller sUSDe circulating supply.

Moreover, as withdrawing sUSDe involves a seven-day unlock period during which users forgo staking rewards, they would have to incur opportunity costs for doing so. Given the notable incentives distributed to holders of USDe, selling sUSDe into the open market at a loss could be quickly offset by the higher yields obtained from holding USDe.

The significant and relatively sustained price deviation observed in April was primarily driven by the launch of the ENA token. Following the airdrop, many users unstaked and sold their assets due to reduced expectations for future airdrops relative to the underlying risks fundamentally presented in the asset. Now that the market has matured and the ENA token is actively trading, we anticipate greater predictability of incentives. This increased stability in the incentive structure has led to a corresponding improvement in the stability of sUSDe.

Dune Price Discrepancy

Regarding LlamaRisk’s initial observations and accompanying chart on sUSDe’s deviation during April 2024, our analysis of the data shows that the reported 3.8% discount in April 2024 seems to be influenced by pricing data for sDAI on Dune, which showed an unwarranted deviation of about 3% from its exchange rate. Since sDAI withdrawals are an atomic process—and considering that DAI did not exhibit any significant price deviation during that period—it is likely that this discrepancy on Dune Analytics is derived from sourcing sDAI prices from illiquid pools.


Source: https://dune.com/queries/4286136/7202718

Our data indicates that the maximum hourly deviation of sUSDe during April 2024 was approximately 2.5%. This smaller deviation, as described earlier, can be attributed to the distribution of the ENA airdrop at that time.

Conclusion

In light of the above, we maintain the proposed parameters, including a 3% Liquidation Bonus, as our recommendation. They strike a balance between safeguarding the protocol and preserving its attractiveness to users.

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