UPDATE: the THORChain team has doubled the upper limits of the amount of RUNE which can be bridged to Ethereum, based on heavy demand. So the limit is now 20m. I haven’t changed the numbers below so please factor this in as you read.
Thanks for raising these points here too, José! This is an important point for the community to be aware of.
The THORChain team capped the maximum number of RUNE tokens to cross from Binance Chain to Ethereum at 10m. The current number of RUNE that have migrated is 8.8m (source CoinGecko). Assuming $4 RUNE and that the 10m cap is hit, we’ll soon have $40m dollars worth on Ethereum.
So we have a conservative assumption of $40m ERC-20 RUNE at launch. How much stays? Well, according to Delphi’s own tool it looks like 30% of RUNE is currently being put to work. I expect that to increase with multichain. With a margin of safety lets say 50% migrates, leaving 5m RUNE, or $20m dollars worth.
This number could be quibbled with, but the reality is it’s a chicken and egg situation. If there’s lending available on Aave then much more RUNE is likely to stay. That’s certainly how I feel, and the support for this proposal signals that the community feels similarly.
Notes
It wouldn’t be prudent for this community to speculate on the price of RUNE, but the fact is that the asset’s meteoric price increase comes off the back of the network’s imminent flagship network launch.
The THORChain team will make it possible to move from ERC-20 to native RUNE on the network’s own chain. They have said it is unlikely that there will be a reverse bridge. However, they support RUNE being used to forge relationships on Ethereum.
Beyond the topic of liquidity I hope this proposal can be seen as a bridge between communities and a small investment in the longer term relationship. What’s more I hope this proposal is workable because as the majority of RUNE will be on the native chain, other cross-chain credit protocols will have a natural technical advantage in attracting the burgeoning THORChain asset ecosystem, for the native asset and liquidity pool tokens and more.