Risk Stewards: Change of Supply & Borrow Caps on Aave V3 / 2026.04.11

Summary

The following cap changes are recommended based on LlamaRisk’s risk analysis, which considers user behavior, on-chain liquidity, and position concentration:

  • Increase supply cap for syrupUSDT on Plasma from 450,000,000 to 550,000,000.
  • Increase borrow cap for GHO on Plasma from 20,000,000 to 35,000,000.
  • Increase supply cap for PT-sUSDE-7MAY2026 on Ethereum Core from 400,000,000 to 550,000,000.

syrupUSDT (Plasma)

syrupUSDT has reached 100% supply cap utilization (450,000,000 / 450,000,000) on the Plasma instance. Demand is driven by users leverage looping syrupUSDT as collateral and borrowing USDT0 to capture the Maple fixed-rate yield differential.

Supply Distribution


Source: LlamaRisk, April 11, 2026

The supply distribution is highly concentrated among two dominant positions, each supplying approximately 125 million syrupUSDT against USDT0 borrows in a leveraged yield strategy. Health factors across the top suppliers remain tight, consistent with leveraged stablecoin looping. Given the correlated nature of the underlying assets, liquidation risk is minimal.

Liquidity

Primary liquidity for Maple backing remains elevated, with more than 700M PYUSD available for redemption queue processing on Ethereum and 439M USDT0 deposited on Aave Plasma instance, an amount that could be pulled if needed to support syrupUSD liquidations. This allows to scale the supply caps as the highly liquid conditions persist.


Source: Maple Finance Dashboard, April 11, 2026

Recommendation

Given persistent demand, tightly correlated collateral and debt assets, and stable concentration patterns among leveraged yield participants, we recommend increasing the supply cap from 450,000,000 to 550,000,000.

GHO (Plasma)

GHO has reached 97.8% borrow cap utilization (19,557,366 / 20,000,000) on the Plasma instance. Supply-side headroom remains adequate at 78.1% of the supply cap (39,032,315 / 50,000,000).

Borrower Distribution


Source: LlamaRisk, April 11, 2026

The GHO borrows are concentrated among leveraged stablecoin strategies, with the top two borrowers drawing approximately 3 million and 2 million GHO respectively against USDe, sUSDe, and SyrupUSDT collateral. Health factors on the larger positions cluster near 1.05, consistent with looped strategies that maximize capital efficiency on correlated stablecoin collateral.

Recommendation

Given the partially correlated stablecoin collateral backing most of the dominant borrow positions, and adequate supply-side headroom, we recommend increasing the borrow cap from 20,000,000 to 35,000,000. In parallel, stataUSDT0 GSM capacity currently stands at 34M, allowing to mint 6M more GHO on-demand using USDT0 as a deposit asset within the current caps.

PT-sUSDE-7MAY2026 (Ethereum Core)

PT-sUSDE-7MAY2026 has reached 100% supply cap utilization (400,000,000 / 400,000,000) on the Ethereum Core instance. Demand is driven by users seeking fixed-yield exposure through leveraged PT strategies.

Supply Distribution

Source: LlamaRisk, April 11, 2026

Suppliers follow a consistent pattern of supplying PT-sUSDE-7MAY2026 as collateral and borrowing stablecoins to capture the fixed yield while leveraging the position. Concentration is notable but the correlated asset profile limits liquidation risk under normal conditions.

Liquidity


Source: LlamaRisk, April 11, 2026

Pool depth and composition on the relevant Pendle AMM pool remain adequate for absorbing unlikely PT unwinds within the existing book.

Recommendation

Given persistent demand, adequate Pendle AMM liquidity, and the correlated asset profile of the dominant positions, we recommend increasing the supply cap from 400,000,000 to 550,000,000. It is notable that we do not recommend larger increases at this time, particularly because the PT-sUSDE-7MAY2026 implied yield is already close to the USDC and USDT borrow rate on Aave Core, with sole notable capacity of ~250M to borrow USDe at a profitable spread. Further capacity is dependent on additional stablecoin supply being attracted or the implied PT yield rising.

Specification

Instance Asset Current Supply Cap Recommended Supply Cap Current Borrow Cap Recommended Borrow Cap
Plasma syrupUSDT 450,000,000 550,000,000 - -
Plasma GHO - - 20,000,000 35,000,000
Ethereum Core PT-sUSDE-7MAY2026 400,000,000 550,000,000 - -

Next Steps

We will move forward and implement these updates via the Risk Steward process.

Disclosure

This review was independently prepared by LlamaRisk, a DeFi risk service provider funded in part by the Aave DAO. LlamaRisk is not directly affiliated with the protocol(s) reviewed in this assessment and did not receive any compensation from the protocol(s) or their affiliated entities for this work.

The information provided should not be construed as legal, financial, tax, or professional advice.

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