ARFC: Supply Cap Updates for Polygon Aave V3, Arbitrum Aave V3 on 2023-06-17

ARFC: Supply Cap Updates for Polygon Aave V3, Arbitrum Aave V3 on 2023-06-18

Summary

Per Gauntlet’s supply and borrow cap methodology, we recommend borrow and supply cap changes for Polygon Aave V3, Arbitrum Aave V3.

Motivation

The following supply and borrow caps have been exceeded, surpassing the 75% threshold.

AAVE supply cap is at 100% usage on Arbitrum Aave V3
LINK supply cap is at 90% usage on Polygon Aave V3
LINK supply cap is at 86% usage on Arbitrum Aave V3
DPI supply cap is at 78% usage on Polygon Aave V3

Specifications

Protocol Parameter Current Value Recommended Value
Arbitrum Aave V3 AAVE Supply Cap 1850 2430
Polygon Aave V3 LINK Supply Cap 370000 668000
Arbitrum Aave V3 LINK Supply Cap 677000 1160000
Polygon Aave V3 DPI Supply Cap 1417 2220

Next Steps

  • Once we receive feedback from @ChaosLabs on the above recommendations, we will be able to move forward to implement these updates via the Risk Steward process.
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Given the current market conditions and sparse liquidity across DEXs, we believe a more conservative approach is warranted, particularly concerning low-to-mid-market-cap assets.

This analysis lacks sufficient supporting data or reasoning behind each of the recommendations. Without a better understanding of the risk-reward tradeoffs considered in this analysis, evaluating these recommendations and supporting this proposal becomes incredibly challenging.

Could @Gauntlet please provide additional supporting data and context for each asset’s recommendation? For instance, how were the recommended supply values derived? What liquidity does the analysis rely on?


Chaos Recommendations:

  • We support the proposed increase for LINK (Polygon).
  • We recommend a modest increase of the supply cap for LINK (Arbitrum) to 810,000.
  • We do not recommend increasing the supply caps for AAVE (Arbitrum) and DPI (Polygon).

LINK (Polygon)

Based on our supply cap methodology, we support increasing the supply cap for LINK on Polygon by 2X.

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LINK (Arbitrum)

Based on our supply cap methodology, we support increasing the supply cap for LINK on Arbitrum.
Although our methodology permits a higher increase, we recommend increasing the cap to 810,000 LINK, as we are seeing a trend of decreasing DEX liquidity, as can see in the graph below. This approach allows for a more measured cap setting that won’t impede growth, especially given the availability of the Risk Steward process, allowing immediate cap increases in response to growing demand.

The middle graph below shows the amount of LINK tokens that can be sold under the corresponding price impact price (shown in the legend) in the main Uniswap V3 pool.

AAVE (Arbitrum)

Due to the extremely low liquidity for AAVE on Arbitrum, we do not recommend increasing the supply cap.

The middle graph shows the amount of AAVE tokens that can be swapped for WETH under the corresponding price impact price (shown in the legend) in the main Uniswap V3 pool.

Untitled - 2023-06-19T011948.102

DPI (Polygon)

Considering the current extremely low liquidity for DPI on Polygon, alongside the lack of clear demand (given the current utilization rate is approximately 78%), we advise against increasing the supply cap at this time.

Untitled - 2023-06-19T011952.048

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Hey @ChaosLabs ChaosLabs, we provided a similar level of specificity as your recent cap posts for expediency, but are happy to provide more when requested. We adopted our aggressive framework for these recommendations, but if the community wishes to adopt a more conservative outlook, we are happy to adopt our conservative recs as well.

We can move forward with the Risk Steward on increasing the caps we have alignment on.

  • Polygon v3 LINK to 668000
  • Arbitrum v3 LINK to 810000

There is no consensus for DPI and AAVE, so we will not move forward with the AIP unless the community expresses strategic interest in increasing the caps.

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We created the payload to be executed via the Risk Steward process for the Polygon LINK supply cap increase here and the Arbitrum LINK supply cap increase here.

We have executed the update via Risk Steward.

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