[ARC] - Chaos Labs Supply and Borrow Cap Updates - Aave V3 Polygon and Arbitrum - 2023.02.07

Simple Summary

A proposal to adjust five (11) total risk parameters, including Supply Cap and Borrow Cap, across seven (7) Aave V3 Polygon and Arbitrum assets.

Motivation

The objective of this proposal is to recommend updated supply and borrow caps for V3 assets that have reached over 85% utilization of either cap. The recommendations provided in this proposal were derived using Chaos Labs’ Updated Supply and Borrow Cap Methodology.

Below are the data and considerations for the assets and recommended caps:

Polygon

DAI, USDC, USDT

We propose updating the borrow caps for DAI, USDC, and USDT. The new proposed caps are set to allow growth on V3 and room for the migration of positions from V2. The image below shows the total value in borrows for the said assets

BAL

Given the calculation below, we recommend increasing the supply cap of BAL to 569,200, doubling the current supply. As the borrow cap is to be updated in this AIP, we do not recommend a change.

Arbitrum

WETH

Given the calculation below, we recommend increasing the supply cap of WETH to 35,280, doubling the current supply. As the current borrow cap is at <33% utilization, we do not recommend updating it.

LINK

Given the calculation below, we recommend increasing the supply cap of LINK to 676,980, doubling the current supply. As the current borrow cap is at <10% utilization, we do not recommend updating it.

Recommendations

Polygon

Current Supply Current Supply Cap Recommended Supply Cap Current Borrow Current Borrow Cap Recommended Borrow Cap notes
BAL 284,600 284,600 361,000 136,400 256,140 NO CHANGE supply cap was modified from our original analysis to address Gauntlet’s recommendation)
EURS 2,060,000 2,000,000,000 4,000,000 728,530 728,530 947,000 Recommendation provided by Gauntlet
DAI 5,680,000 2,000,000,000 45,000,000 3,160,000 3,860,000 30,000,000
USDC 35,590,000 2,000,000,000 150,000,000 18,600,000 30,680,000 100,000,000
USDT 5,940,000 2,000,000,000 45,000,000 4,870,000 5,060,000 30,000,000

Arbitrum

Current Supply Current Supply Cap Recommended Supply Cap Current Borrow Current Borrow Cap Recommended Borrow Cap
LINK 338,490 350,000 677,000 $763,400 20,427 NO CHANGE
ETH 17,640 20,300 35,280 3,663 11,165 NO CHANGE

Next Steps

We invite a community discussion around the proposed parameter updates and will follow up with a Snapshot vote in 5 days, barring community objection.

2 Likes

Thanks, @ChaosLabs. Gauntlet’s analysis yielded different results (mostly higher caps). In order to reduce governance fatigue, we will not offer another set of options to the community. However, we did want to flag the BAL supply cap increase.

The recommended BAL supply cap of 569,200 above represents ~78% of circulating supply on Polygon chain. That represents a meaningful concentration risk for the Aave Polygon v3 market. Under Gauntlet’s borrow and supply cap methodology, even our Aggressive recommendation would set the max amount of BAL at 361k. If Chaos moves forward with recommending an increase to BAL’s supply cap, we recommend no cap larger than 361k.

We’d note that there are several assets on this list that Gauntlet would recommend increasing caps for, but only if the community agrees on an Aggressive assumption. The community has not yet decided on a Conservative vs. Aggressive strategy, so we ask that the community provides input on this thread.

We have updated the proposal above to incorporate our recommendations for increased borrow caps for DAI, USDC, and USDT on Polygon. The recommended caps are designed to allow growth on V3 and room for the migration of positions from V2.

In addition, we updated the recommendation for the BAL supply cap to incorporate the above recommendation and added Gauntlet’s recommendation for an increased borrow cap for EURS (increasing the borrow cap to 947,000).

We plan to utilize the fast-track process for increasing borrow caps and will proceed to post an AIP at the beginning of next week, barring any community concerns.

3 Likes

What’s the rationale behind keeping these massive 2B supply caps?
I see that it’s like that on pools, but the approach on Ethereum v3 seems more reasonable to me (aka caps, with good margin for growth, without being overly excessive as it’s easy enough to update in a future proposal).

1 Like

Thanks @sakulstra for the comment.

In this proposal, we originally focused on highlighting and updating caps nearing their limits, rather than a wide change of parameters.
We support the approach of setting caps “with a good margin for growth, without being overly excessive” and have been implementing it in our proposal.

To accommodate this comment in the upcoming proposal, we have updated the recommendations to reduce the supply caps for DAI, USDC, USDT, and EURS such that the new cap can absorb migrating positions from V2 while allowing additional organic growth.

3 Likes

We have published this AIP-155 for community members to vote on, starting in 24h

Thank you in advance for your participation in the vote.

2 Likes

Updated Recommendation for BAL on Polygon V3:

  • No increase to the Supply Cap. The existing Supply Cap represents 63% of BAL circulating supply on Polygon. Since our last recommendation, the circulating supply of BAL on Polygon has decreased.

  • Increase the Borrow Cap from 256k to 290k. Increasing the borrow cap is supported by the number of tokens held by top wallet holders and circulating on Polygon.

1 Like

We’d be interested to know if Gauntlet tracks the behaviour of borrowers for BAL?

Given the likes of Aura which offer a high yield on BAL/ETH BPT, is it fair to assume that borrowers are bridging to ETH and depositing to Aura? If so, increasing the borrow cap would likely further reduce the circulating supply on Polygon.

1 Like

Hi @WintermuteGovernance,

Please have a read of this proposal here which seeks to change the BAL interest rate.

An extract applicable to the earlier comment is shown below:

Description APY TVL Network
Aura Finance (Aura Gauge) B-80BAL-20WETH / auraBAL 58.21% $21,380,000 Ethereum
Tetu (Balancer Gauge) B-80BAL-20WETH / tetuBAL 88.77% $10,220,000 Polygon
Stake DAO (Balancer Gauge) B-80BAL-20WETH / sdBAL 18.25% - 45.35% $637,221 Ethereum

We have also just published this proposal to focus the communities discussion on the BAL reserve on Polygon v3. Let’s pivot the discussion across to the thread linked below.

1 Like